Ludia Forums

A Couple of Questions about Statistical Probabilities?

1st- I am very happy to see y’all have decided to post the probability( I’m curious about the methodology used) of what your chances are in regards to getting (A,B,C,D,etc.) on the various Card packs.
2nd- If anything within my comment sounds :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:… Understanding and Calculating Implied Probabilities is something which is a daily part of my Professional Life- :triangular_flag_on_post:Not Knowing how to do it accurately would be Extremely Detrimental!

?(1)Does this show up on Gold and Classic Packs? I can’t see because I have already purchased both of them this week? Gold Pack was laughable - 0 Runes, 45 silver( I had 13.5k at the POS) and Rumblehorn. Anything else is irrelevant to my account- I can easily collect 1-2 Billion per day of Fish and Wood

?(2)- Are there any plans to do this for Journeys?

?(3) If a player can provide data that shows that the probabilities are incorrect, will Ludia do anything about it? * Unless my account has a “bug” then these ( posted) odds are basically mathematically impossible.( *It’s technically not impossible but assuming that everyone on earth played, the only way to get my results would be by cheating, although not in my favor. I would rank in the bottom .0076% percentile! I’d be happy to run a Book if people were willing to bet $100 to win .7-8 cents * On each “event”

:warning::triangular_flag_on_post::warning:This is what I’ve experienced​:triangular_flag_on_post::warning::triangular_flag_on_post:.
Notice that I didn’t criticize or accuse anyone of anything
This is MY EXPERIENCE and even though I’ve heavily “weighted” my analysis in favor of Ludia( 20-30% +/-,variances based on what “item-event”) . I am not going to post the results. I will if Ludia will send me how they’ve arrived at the odds they’ve posted. I have used the following items within my analysis: *Resources- what I’ve had, what I “need”, and 4-5 additional data points

  • Based on my gaming experience! The only way that they are even close to accurate is if y’all changed them with the update.

I have recently begun( I’m very close to finishing) a very extensive/comprehensive analysis of over 2000 Journeys( 30-40% of which I’ve spent over 10 thousand runes on- speed-up and higher level journeys) and 100’s of packs that are not even close to the kind of odds that are posted.

2 reasons for posting! 1) I am curious if anyone else has any anecdotal data regarding their experience? 2) I am interested in receiving hourglass to my questions.

3 Likes

Loop brawls into this as well. I bet no one has won more than 4 in a row. Some rounds the dragons dont even follow the order and just wipe you out

Winning four in a row is pretty easy… if you wait 12 hours between battles. Without waiting, every victory increases the level of the computer’s dragons (which is unfair to begin with¹) until, yeah, you’re pretty much guaranteed to be doomed.

(¹ Who here has all their champion dragons at the same level as their rookies? Most players will have higher level rookies than champions, because the tokens for the latter are much less available, but the computer gets to have champions at — or above, after a victory or so — your highest rookie level.)

Hello King Maximud,

I’m happy that i read your lines about the statistics results. I’m collecting the samy amount fish as you like (I played it now since 4 year i think). Did lydia replied to you ?? I did the same experience with around 1500 to 2000 Journeys of all 5 dragonrider like meatleg, etc. !

Kind regards from germany

@Falco-Fox- They replied but it was just a generic answer.( Ned, is the ONLY person that has ever helped me, he deserves a medal!) from Ludia

Unfortunately, I have continued to experience the same thing.The data on the Packs isn't "accurate"... It technically doesn't have to be though... ie- because of the scale, it's irrelevant information. I have done a very thorough process of analysis re: my data and it's 😂😂😂. I have come to realize why they don't make it better for us,meaning why so expensive? I would love to see their balance sheet/earnings. *FYI- Ludia employees are great, I feel bad for the devops teams though. They make it more enjoyable but all of their jobs could be impacted by no fault of their own.I have a pretty clear idea of why they don't make it better???🚩..... IMO, the ONLY way for it to be sustainable and profitable(the Entity) is due to 3rd party agreements with Tapjoy, Facebook, Etc.  

This may have very interesting consequences very soon. I apologize for the delay in responding, I don’t log on very often here but maybe the universe told me to “check-in” because of my interest in what happens next month in Germany. I have a pretty good idea about what’ll happen if they(FB) aren’t able to win the appeal.( Great Deals for you​:clap::clap:) or a cooked up stipulation that German players will have to use Facebook…

I hope it’s the 1st! Thanks.

I have never had a Facebook account but because of the reciprocal agreements with pretty much every entity in the “connected world”, FB has as much data on me than a long-time user. ( Interesting side note - Ask your family, friends, etc. If they have heard of TapJoy, I have had 1-2/1000 know who they are!!! Look up the data on how many “unique visitors” per month. The last time I checked it was something like 85-90% of the world’s population.

I have win five or six in a row all the time