A study on luck

This is data compiled from 100 games recording the frequency of critical hits, stuns, stun failures, dodges and dodge failures. It may not be abundantly clear since I cannot figure out how to pair up columns on the chart to show the difference between the winner and loser of each fight, but the trend is 2/3 of the time the winner is whoever gets the most favourable rng results, with half the remaining 1/3 of the time the rng being even. It really makes it hard to see where people claiming that luck is secondary to skill are coming from, as it is extremely hard to come back from bad luck in this game no matter how well you play.

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Well, one thing to consider from the non-rng side is this -

Removing cloaking dinos and stunning dinos from teams is a legitimate strategy (or not using the cloaks/stuns unless absolutely necessary). Most of the top 50 teams have a maximum of 2 cloaking dinos at the very most, and usually those (like me) who are using indoraptor are not using evasive strike unless it’s a guarantee that you’ll lose if you don’t.

That doesn’t mean RNG isn’t a problem in competitive play. It means you’re guaranteed to see more fluctuation if you give yourself more 50/50 rolls.

All in all, I don’t think anyone is fully in favor of the RNG. I think people are either trying to work within the system and generally winning/losing at equal amounts, or people are relying on it and seeing massive tilts in wins/losses.

Personally, I take issue with the things that are 50% and below. I can live with missing a greater stunning strike at 75%. What really messes me up is the 20% crit chance, the 50% dodge rate, the 20% stun chance, etc.

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its not a 100% rng game because of the ability to swap. more like 25%.

Ah yes, swapping. Always assuming of course you got lucky in the random team roll and have something good to swap into. And you’re really understating if you want to claim it’s only 25% luck. ignoring the team rolling mechanic which in itself makes the game 50% luck, the data shows luck wins battles 2/3 of the time.

thats why you choose your best 8. it doesnt randomly pick from everything you have in your collection. crap team will leave you with crap results thats for sure.

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This strongly depends on what teams are used in these battles. If it’s an indom mirror matchup, it’ll be 75-100% dependent on rng. If it’s dinos like stegodeus, rng will play a minimal role.

Here is the issue! If Ludia figures out a way (which they may have already done) to choose your opponents dinosaurs based on where they want you in the tournament it won’t matter what your 8 are!

Basically what I’m getting at is before you even started the match it has already been decided who is going to win! Almost every time I lose I bring out my pyrritor to 90% of the time my opponent have all dinosaur that slow! Remember Ludia placed pyrritor in the game as well as picked my opponents dinosaur!

When I am no where near a goal say 3800 in Sorna and the game picks pyrritor and my opponent is at a goal post say 3990 or even 4230 the opponent doesn’t stand a chance because I use ready to crush 100% of the time when my opponent has nothing that slows and my pyrritor can if faster take out the first 2 dinosaur and possibly the 3!

Since the AI chooses both yours and the opponent at the same time when it takes a long time the AI may be searching not only a opponent in your trophy range but an opponent with counters to yours!

Not saying this is how it goes but it is possible!

Doesn’t anyone wonder about the 2 minute waiting for opponent to respond! How do you respond! You don’t!

In that time frame the AI could be scanning your opponents dinosaurs to see which to choose on both sides

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thats what alot assume is happening. things like swapping or having a balanced, unbalanced team still affect the outcome. i would love to see the code that the devs use to choose matches and opponents counters.

ps i loved to open with pyrritator but learned my lessons lol. unfortunately he didnt make the cut and is bench warming now.

For me I use her all the time since she is faster than most dinosaurs so worst case scenario I can take a decent chunk out of the dinosaur that slows

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yeah shes quick but i also have indo, mimus and dilocherious which are just as quick. when i did use her she was a wrecking ball even without using rtc.

You choose ‘your best 8’ because the randomizer makes it impossible to team build strategically, so you end up with a team of mostly tanks, with maybe 1 fast dino and 1 strong dino if you have them high level. While making this data I also recorded what dinos I was encountering most, and altered my team to maximise the number of commonly used dinos I could counter. It made no difference, you know why? Because half the time I wouldnt roll the dinos I needed to counter theirs, meaning my win/loss ratio was exactly the same as if I just used my 8 highest level dinos, regardless of balance, or any 8 legendaries, or basically any team combination I tried. So everyone just uses the same ‘best’ dinos, when in a reasonably balanced game this wouldnt last long as any dino being over-used would find itself being countered.

A-B-C-D brackets every bracket will have 3 Dinos(total 12),RNG choose one from each bracket to total 4

So you have the option to put in A bracket all 3 tanks, in B Bracket all immunity, in C Bracket all speedsters,and in D Bracket all Debuffers. With this way you will always have Dinos to counter your opponent’s team.

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see, when i build my 8, i try to do so in groups of twos. like 2 nullify, 2 tanks, speeders, swappers. and then i try to draw up scenarios where my worst 4 are matched up. and if there is a weaklink i replace them. that wont work for all if you dont have good, leveled dinos though.

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Exactly my point! We only have the illusion of control in these battles!

Swap is useless because of losing turns! Believe me I have tried! I still will lose!

In a different thread someone said I should have used trago instead of indominus but I believe I was destined to lose that match so it would not make a difference!

Remember if you really think about it do we really have any control in these tournament battles!

Hmm, I dunno. Second grade math tells me if you have 3 counters you will end up with at least one of them 93% of the time. Hardly rng dependant.

I kinda like this idea, but it will be so expensive to keep 12 dinos competitive. Still I’d like to test how this suggestion would work in this game!

Remember something important! No matter what you use and change in that 2 minutes countdown the game could be searching for counters! That is why you get the time out sometimes!

Since the AI decides both your team and opponent team you have no control

Than add into the mix the RNG during battles and there is even less control

If the implement this idea,they could also raise a little the coin limit

there are many ways to swap. and now with swap in abilities its actually a plus. like if i swap in my dio, now he has swap in ferocity or if its strike, it can deliver the final blow etc… there are many combos to use swap. if you beat an opponent and the next dino comes out and you dont like it nor want to die just yet, swap out to a better match up. now you have a chance to go up 2 to 0.

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