Ludia Forums

Can we have a specific set of information please?

Hey there to all community response peoples. I would for us to have the digits % wise, for our D20 rolls provided. Thee is nothing within this knowledge being release that would harm the game nor the community, but it would help solve alot of arguments and questions.

For example, when rolling a D20, did they program it with an exact 5% chance for each dice, or did each number get assigned a specific % to reflect more DnD like experiences?

Say for example 20s and 1s being least likely with say a 2% chance, and 10,13 and 14 having icrease % chance.

Can we please have the devs provide the exact amount, as both a transparency request and a community request? Otherwise some people wil have to record thousands of rolls and quantify it to guess.

Not sure I understand. An exact 5% is exactly the true DnD experience.

I would be very disappointed if the rolls were not true.

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Dice are never exactly 5%. They are skewed in many ways. In theory dice are 5% for each, but in practice they are actually operating on a unique divide.

In a long run a 20 sided dice would be exactly 5% there are 20 sides and they all are equally likely to hit. That makes it 5%

People just seem to think that you will always get that average even in the short term which is not true.

As expressed above, this was a specific request to customer service @Jon for example, not to spark a debate about probabilities. We all know that on paper, yes a d20 would technically have a natural 5% spread. The reality in world is, that even with extensive testing, no die is perfect, and therefor has a standard deviation, such as:

More can be read here, for your enlightenment:

As Well As:

This last one is more to the scientific side as well:

======================================

If you wish to start a debate thread, please do so, lets leave this thread for the company to respond to, thanks.

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Also the reason why I ask is simply because of “where” the loot is placed in a given boss d20 roll. Such as:


(Lightfinger Spread)
vs.
This:
(Sharpstone Spread)

Now look at the Sharpstone, as we have had this much longer - the d20 is the only one providing an epic, and everything progresses from the D1 --> D20. If its purely astethic, then yea low rewards are lower numbers, but what if the rewards have a higher chance for the lower number? If they were all equal 5% then the epic would not need to be in the 20 spot would it. Of course, they could have done this for purely aesthetic purposes, but then why the differing spread on the Lightfinger…hence the request for transparency~~

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It’s a good question. But, I doubt you’ll get an answer. If they do weight the rolls, the weighting may change for each challenge or even each time they update the rewards.

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Yea thats what I am wondering, it seems to specific to have an even spread.

I am curious about something as I am fairly new to this game. Has it ever been expressed somewhere that the do actually a 1 in 20 chance for any part of the game? I know with there being 20 prizes it would be natural to have that assumption but have they ever actually said that. I know they show a d20 in most of the graphics but that could just be for looks. I know this is basically the same question as the op by the way.

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Yeah… we don’t know. The ‘rolls’ might be manufactured after the loot is determined by more complex methods.

I don’t know how this fits into this, but the lightfinger treasure table was created when we’re rolling 3 D20. the original tables were made when you rolled a D6, D12, and D20.

Also I remember quite awhile ago a Dev referred to getting a 1 or a 20 as a 5% chance. so I would assume it’s 5% for every number, and there’s no weighting.

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There’s not much reason to believe they are using the same RNG for each dice roll. They probably are because it’s easier to refer back to the same place in the code every time it comes up, but you could have a different RNG for each possible dice roll which would eliminate any relationship between boards without much extra work or code. That said in general assuming a player gives equal weight to all common items, all rare items, and all Epic items such that Epic>rare>common (not true I know but actual value varies from player to player and through time) the rewards generally increase as the number goes up. There’s probably a psychological thing where most people are trained to think higher number means better so folks would be a little uneasy with the best reward sitting at seven while the worst sits at 14.

Since it has come up many times in this topic, the biggest reason to believe the dice rolls are fair or at least intended to be is that by using in game currencies that can be bought with actual money to buy chances to play levels for extra dice rolls using a rigged RNG would open Ludia up to large legal issues. That sort of thing would move from the game from the shadowy world of “everyone pretend this isn’t gambling because the money changed hands several steps ago and the prizes only vaguely exist in the real world” that a lot of these micro transaction heavy games exist in to the out in the open “We’ve had laws on the books for years to deal with carnies running rigged games to rip off locals” world of civil law not only in pretty much all jurisdictions the players live in but probably also the jurisdiction Ludia’s TOS says the game operates in.

TLDR: The risks of using a rigged RNG are very large so there is a very low chance the RNG isn’t on the up and up.

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I agree that it seems unlikely it is rigged. Sure by messing with the system they could get some better sales of gems or whatever, but if it ever came out as a fact that it was rigged, maybe through a disgruntled employee, the company could have a lot more to lose on all of their games.

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Its not “rigged” per se, even if it is not a pure 5%, and hence why the request for an official transparency provision of the actual provisions. D20s, even as shown in research above, generally have a natural variance, determined by several factors.

Regardless, we as players have the right to transparency on these things, if theyre kept hidden, then there is reason for concern.

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I disagree. I find it highly unlikely that this game or any other would ever show that exact kind of information.

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I will say a couple of final things about randomness in this thread simply because the convo is already here and I finally was able to read the links you provided. First off the article about the two types of dice was very interesting and something I basically new from working in a casino. Dice wear out or there are errors in manufacturing process that will have an effect on specific dice, but since this game is not rolling actual dice, you wouldn’t have those issues. Second if you read the pub med article you will see that in multiple places it states, or shows in a table, that looking for a specific number in one roll of a d20 is 5%. Or course this is with all things being equal and nothing influencing the specific odds for any number like a defect or lack of quality in the dice. Lastly, when you are using a computer program you can never get true randomness. There has to be something in the program that tells it what number to choose. It can be an insanely complicated algorithm that approximates randomness but it can never truly be random. The only way a computer program can get to a true randomness is by observing something outside of itself and using that to create its data. I doubt they are doing that for a game that is essentially free.

Thanks for the wonderful return on the info Mkb. Many games have already been REQUIRED to show this info, and many others have voluntarily provided some, and the legally pushed to provide more. Square Enix is a team I am closely involved with, and two of their titles have this for example. Eventually FFBE was required to show percentages, after extreme community and legal pushes, and it was both enlightening, and beneficial to the community and game thereafter.

Another game that came out, had the % rats already built into the game, so specific, that every single item in every single drop chest, loot rool, or whatnot was posted.

Some countries are even banning mobile game apps, esp ones with gacha or loot boxes, that dont post their %, and even after posting %, they still sometimes ban anyway. Many of these of course are more on the side of gambling, which Ludia is of course not, however it is still beneficial to them community wise and legally to provide these numbers.

Either way, not a debate, this is just a specific request to team, not an open discussion.

Even if the numbers arent provided, we have several very large sample sizes that we can derive % from, and can already guestimate that its not exact 5%, but would prefer to be corrected.

As a random sample size of 100 hidden forge runs I did just tonite, the following info is interesting, but not representative as 100 rolls is not a good size sample.

The most rolls of 1 number was 7x D20.
The numbers that never appeared were : D2, D3, D6, D15 (interesting)
My target number was D10, which appeared 3 times.
D1 also appeared 6x, as compared to d20 at 7x.

Overall it was not very telling, but fun nonetheless.

Anywho’s, if and when we could get an answer from CS that would be wonderful. It wouldnt be harmful to release these %, as its server side and not manipulatable, and likely not obtuse, as our sample sizes all show a decent variance. Its more of a curiosity than anything, and as stated above would save us alot of needless work.

And yes, even if given a fine-tuned 5% across the board, algorithms will in fact affect it over time, and seed info as well.

Cheers~~