# Can we please stop complaining about the "nerf" to challenge rewards

Edit: TL,DR: Don’t listen to the complainers. Sharpstone is still safe to grind for gold and gems, in fact it’s better than before!

I have already addressed the complaints to the “nerf” to epic rewards in challenges here: The Balance and Bravery Patch decreases the expected epics per run:

Now I would like to address the issue of gold and gem rewards brought up in several threads. At first, I was also skeptical, concerned that Ludia would use the correction of the equipment buyback algorithm as a justification for reducing the expected rewards from challenges. Fortunately for us, the math does not bear that out, in fact this update has been a boon to challenge rewards! First lets look at the old 1d6+1d12+1d20 system.

(Before I get into this, a few assumptions: 1. Epics are more desirable than gold or gems. 2. Gems(G) are worth 20 gold(gp) based upon the 500 gems for 10000 gold purchase in the store. 3. Rares and commons are less desirable than gold or gems.)

The rewards break down like this:
{20}: 4 epics * 1/20 = 0.2 epics/run

{14}: 300 gp * 1/20 = 15 gp/run
{13}: 200 gp * 1/20 = 10 gp/run
{15}: 9G * 20 gp/G * 1/20 = 9 gp/run
{8}: 150 gp * ((1/12+1/20) - (1/12 * 4/20) = 17.5 gp/run
{9,2}: 3G * 20 gp/G * (1-(1-(1/6+1/12+1/20)) * (1-(1/12+1/20))-1/6 * (1-(1-5/20) * (1-1/12))-2/12 * 5/20-2/20 * 1/12+7/1440-6/1440) = 17.5167 gp/run
{7,1}: 50 gp * (1-(1-(1/6+1/12+1/20)) * (1-(1/12+1/20))-1/6 * (1-(1-7/20) * (1-3/12))-2/12 * (1-(1-1/6) * (1-7/20)) - 2/20 * (1-(1-1/6) * (1-3/12)) + 24/1440 + 6/1440) = 10.743
Total gold and gems/run = 79.759 gp/run

Seems like a lot, eh? And yes, those calculations were a bear. Now let’s take a look at the new, 3d20 system.

When addressing the question of epics/ HSM run i used the following equations:

The probability § of obtaining a result of a value “n” where n is the rank of desirability in descending order (i.e. n=1 for the most desirable die roll, n = 20 for the least desirable die roll) can be expressed as:

P = 3/20 - 3/20* (1 - (21-n)^2 / 20^2) + 3(n-1)/20^3

Where the first term identifies the odds of the roll appearing, the second term corrects for the chance of obtaining a better die roll in the same result, and the third term adds back in results that were removed twice by the second term. Factoring out 3/20 affords:

P = 3/20* (1- (1-(21-n)^2 / 20^2)) + (n-1)/20^2)

Distributing -1 to the second term causes 1 - 1 to zero out and 1/20^2 can be factored out, resulting in the following expression.

P = 3/8000 * ((21-n)^2 + n-1)

Applying this formula to the new SSK rewards looks like this:
{20}(n=1): 2 epics * 3/20 = 0.3 epics/run
{16}(n=2): 15 G * 20 gp/G * 3/8000 * (19^2 + 1) = 40.725 gp
{17}(n=3): 250 gp * 3/8000 * (18^2 + 2) = 30.5625 gp
{11}(n=4): 6 G * 20 gp/G * 3/8000 * (17^2 + 3) = 13.14 gp
{12}(n=5): 100 gp * 3/8000 * (16^2 + 4) = 9.75 gp
{6}(n=6): 3 G * 20 gp/G * 3/8000 * (15^2 + 5) = 5.175 gp
{7}(n=7): 50 gp * 3/8000 * (14^2 + 6) = 3.7878 gp
{1}(n=8): 2 G * 20 gp/G * 3/8000 * (13^2 + 7) = 2.64 gp
{2}(n=9): 25 gp * 3/8000 * (12^2 +8) = 1.425 gp
Total = 107.205

This is a 114% return on your investment in gold! More if SSK is still your free dungeon. (If you’ve made it to the forums, chances are it’s not, but still.) Aside from the raw totals, a few interesting trends become apparent. In the old system, the lowest 4 values {1,2,7,9} contributed 35% to the total gold and gem rewards, whereas in the new system, the lowest four values, contribute only 12%. In the old system, one felt that they had to take all of the gold and gem rewards, or at least be forced to make the hard choice between gold and a desirable common or rare, because even the low results had a large impact on resource income. In the 3d20 system, however, the player can eschew rolls of 1 and 2 for the trash rolls they are and still earn over 100 gold per run. One can even ignore rolls of 6 and 7 and still earn 94.1775 gold per run. Of course if you’re still angry over how they “nerfed” the gold and gem rewards, you could ignore all gold and gem rolls except 16, 17 and 12. The sums of these will get you about the same payouts as the old system.

In higher dungeons, the returns on gold investment will go down with the addition of epic rewards. Some back of the envelope calculations suggest an 11% decrease in relative gold and gem rewards for the addition of each epic slot to the rewards table. While this is an unfortunate consequence of having better options (read: champagne problems), the addition of epics to the old system was even more disruptive to the gold and gem rewards because they were on smaller dice than the d20.

This, in addition to the fixing of the equipment economy, greatly drives the incentive for players to grab more commons and rares, possibly finding new combinations of abilities, new uses for “trash” commons, (I’m personally looking really hard at the rogue common pants plus epic wondrous item with the epic or legd. weapons for crazy crit fishing.) and overall fun of the game. Which I suspect is what the devs were intending with this update.

In summary, Update 10 was not “good” for people who “can’t three dice their hardest dungeon”, nor was it “good” for “free players” or “paid players” or “subscription players” or “players with two heads and purple spots.” It was just good.

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Good analysis. I do like it when people who are more competent at probability tables walk me through the analysis.

Just to reiterate, however, the expected Epics per run were decreased by your own calculations. So the characterization as a nerf to epic drop rates per run is still accurate. It may well be compensated by shortened runs though, as you pointed out.

How do you feel about the 2 for 1 legendary pack gem offer being paywalled?

Honestly, the only decrease to rewards is in HSM, if only because HSM started off ridiculously generous for epics.

The math above reflects a 50% increase in epics per run in SSK, reducing the gold cost per epic from 250 to 167 ignoring, for now, that the free run was always SSK

Here’s the breakdown for the other dungeons:
FSM d6+d12+d20:
{20}: 8 epics * 1/20 = 0.4 epics/run
{12}: 2 epics * (1/20 + 1/12 - 1/(12 * 20)) = 0.2583 epics/run
Total = 0.6583 epics/run :: 151.9 gp/epic

FSM 3d20:
{20}: 4 epics * 3/20 = 0.6 epics/run
{18}: 2 epics * 3/8000 * (19^2 + 1) = 0.27225 epics/run
Total = 0.87225 epics/run :: 114.64 gp/epic

HF d6+d12+d20
{20}: 12 epics * 1/20 = 0.6 epics/run
{19}: 2 epics * 1/20 = 0.1 epics/run
{12}: 3 epics * (1/20 + 1/12 - 1/(12 * 20)) = 0.3875 epics/run
Total = 1.0875 epics/run :: 137.93 gp/epic

HF 3d20
{20}: 6 epics * 3/20 = 0.9 epics/run
{18}: 3 epics * 3/8000 * (19^2 + 1) = 0.407 epics/run
{14}: 1 epics * 3/8000 * (18^2 + 2) = 0.12225 epics/run
Total = 1.42925 epics/run :: 104.93 gp/epic

And in the aforementioned post I calculated the following
HSM d6+d12+d20:
{20}: 20 epics * 1/20 = 1 epics/run
{19}: 2 epics * 1/20 = 0.1 epics/run
{18}: 1 epics * 1/20 = 0.05 epics/run
{12}: 5 epics * (1/20 + 1/12 - 1/(12 * 20)) = 0.64583 epics/run
{6}: 3 epics * ((1/20 + 1/12 + 1/6) - 1/6 * ( 1- (11/12 * 18/20)) - 1/12 * 1/20 - 1/12 * 1/20 + 3/1440) = .78125
Total: 2.5771 epics/run :: 97.0 gp/epic

HSM 3d20:
Total: 2.397 epics/run :: 104.3 gp/epic

I don’t have numbers for Heartcoil, If anyone can share rewards, I’d be happy to run the numbers.

So from these numbers, it’s pretty clear that epic rewards have increased for every challenge except HSM, but the gold per epic cost of HSM was significantly lower than other challenges due to the presence of an epic on the d6. Now all of the gold/epic rates are right around 100 - 120 gp/epic with the exception of SSK, which brings them closer to the gp/epic rate of original HSM. And in formalizing all of the challenges into a single rewards scheme, it looks like the epic-productivity of HSM fell by 7%. But with all of the net increases across the rest of the update, any amount of time spent arguing over the decrease in epics/run for one (maybe two with HCD) challenges seems like nit-picking.

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Sorry to double post, but as far as paywalls are concerned, If I want to play a game that costs money, i’ll pay it. If I’m playing a game that is free and I don’t want to pay I won’t. If I’m playing a game that isn’t fun unless I spend money, I won’t play it.

I am always amazed about the conversation when debating free to play games.
The game has been developed and produced by designers and coders to make money!
Yes, they likely also enjoy the game but at the end of the day the studio need to make money.
If I start playing a game on my phone and I enjoy it, I dont mind paying for the enjoyment.
As for WoW (this game), I have bought 2 packs, one for about 10 euro and another for about 15 euro, thats it.
However, I have played the game for, say 20-30 hours and enjoyed it.
For me that is a more than acceptable price pr hour

However, I do find some of the pricing to be odd in this game.
The cost of the new paladin for one and the expensive, yet almost useless VIP pass.

In a sense this game reminds me of the Warhammer series, also for iPhone Warhammer quest 1/2
An amazing phone game with a huge potential due to many loyal fans
I am not aware of the current numbers of users in this game but my suggestion would be to build a loyal base as DnD is a very loved brand.

Developing new adventures based on the current model would be relatively easy, if you can keep people playing! However, this will require a less aggresive, short sighted pricing model and a constant follow up with new material.

Doing new adventures for say 10 \$ would be fair if yhey offered say 10-20 hours of play

The potential is there but I would fear that if the developers push people away due to greed or lack of contend, getting them to come back can be very difficult

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I am more than willing to pay up front. I would have had no trouble paying \$30-\$50 for this game. I am willing to pay for expansions a new quest or a new quest and characters. This is how all games were just a few years ago.

What I don’t like and won’t do is set up a recurrent payment so as to be able to play all the time or advance in game. I won’t pay a one off for in game currency or items. This is manipulative, and hopefully will be outlawed alongside loot boxes. I mean already using in game currency if you bought it with real world money for a challenge run is pretty loot boxy.

I will say in the game’s defense thus far they haven’t killed the game by pitting the payers against the non-payers for advance by combining in game currency and time limited events or tying the award of special items to PvP or clan play. Once that happens the game is pretty well dead for me,

They literally just did a vip only 2 for 1 legendary sale for gems. I can’t tell if you were being satirical.

Edit: rereading your post I’m thinking by time limited you meant like a moment of glory except with extra rewards and costing gems.

I guess I used it two different ways.

Some games limit the number of times a day you can play unless you pay for unlimited play with cash or in game currency which while perhaps earnable in game will usually require using real world money in order to obtain a stable supply. I don’t like these mainly because I play games in order to play them whereas this is having a game to not play.

Second some games will have an event with a tangible reward like say a special character, and the award can only be obtained through playing the event which only lasts a certain amount of time. This time period and the event itself will be set such that most players will be unable to obtain the prize without spending money to get extra shots at the event.

Heartcoil rewards are:

1: 11 gems
2: 175 gold
3: 35 common
4: 4 rare
5: 35 common
6: 21 gems
7: 350 gold
8: 70 common
9: 7 rare
10: 1 epic
11: 42 gems
12: 700 gold
13: 210 common
14: 3 epic
15: 28 rare
16: 105 gems
17: 1750 gold
18: 6 epic
19: 70 rare
20: 14 epic

Costs 350 gold to enter.

Thank you Mercurial. You don’t happen to recall at least the epics breakdown for the d6+d12+d20 system do you?

Edit: or perhaps a file that lists those rewards?

No sorry, I have only just unlocked heartcoil so I didn’t ever run it with the old mechanic.

With the numbers @Mercurial provided, the new numbers for Heartcoil epics look like this:

HCD 3d20:
{20}: 14 epics * 3/20 = 2.1 epics/run
{18}: 6 epics * 3/8000 * (19^2 + 1) = 0.8145 epics/run
{14}: 3 epics * 3/8000 * (18^2 + 2) = 0.36675 epics/run
{10}: 1 epics * 3/8000 * (17^2 + 3) = 0.1095 epics/run
Total = 3.39075 epics/run :: 103.01 gp/epic

This gold per epic rate puts it squarely in line with the three previous dungeons.

In lieu of hard numbers from HCD d6+d12+d20, I will assume that with an epic on {6}, the epic rewards are closer to HSM than previous dungeons. Comparable epic/gold cost would put the epic yield at roughly 3.6 epics/run. The 3d20 epics rewards would thus represent a 6% reduction in epics/run, but as I stated in the linked thread, the gold/run is reduced by the free run every 5 hours now being on the highest unlocked dungeon, and short of any forthcoming content, HCD is your free dungeon if you have it unlocked, likely reducing the gold/epic rate by a significant amount. That coupled with the reduction of the 15 rooms by 6 results in the accumulation of considerably more epics over comparable expenditures of gold and time.