Ludia Forums

Countering BAD RNG Waves!

#1

If there’s one thing I’ve noticed myself and through reading this forum is that RNG seems to occur in waves. Sometimes you get more than your fair share of bad RNG losses which may cause you to lose 200-300 trophies (or more) in quick succession. I know it’s not intended to be programmed that way but such is the nature of RNG algorythms, they do seem to get locked towards a RNG bias of either in-favour/out-of-favour. Now I know statistically many things are possible when it comes to RNG but I can’t help thinking that there’s a bit of bad programming in play here.

FYI I would just like to suggest something that I find helps me. If you’re experiencing a bad RNG loss of say 3-4 battles in a row, stop. Reset your game, or put it down and come back after a period of time, to reset your session and try again. Because the winds of RNG will change - don’t punish yourself by allowing the bad RNG waves drag you down.

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#2

I dont even understand how programming RNG results in waves…
Just let the client send a frame number and if it ends in 00-74, you get the stun, 75-99 you dont.

#3

nor do the developers of this game, i reckon.

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#4

I think it’s fairly obvious to most players here that the RNG algorithms just aren’t working as expected.

#5

I’m pretty sure it’s how it works and it’s the most used model. The difficulty is to ensure that the repartition is statically correct.
But even with a perfect algorithm netting 75% in the long run, you can still be screwed in something you call waves.

I plan to make a video to explain it cause I see so many topics and most of them don’t really understand how it works…

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#6

dont forget human error

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#7

I leveled my indoraptor to lvl 25 and I am counting the times he dodges.
(attacks dodged/ attacks)
so far it’s 1/11 only one attack dodged out of 11 total attacks
:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

#8

It depends on the results they are trying to obtain. 5% chance of something happening is different than wanting something to happen 5% of the time.

Computers can’t roll dice or flip coins so despite appearances there truly isn’t anything random in a computer program. When we used to write scripts we would use a seeded Random function to generate a “random” number. Since seeding the function with the same number would always return the same results we had to use a source that was constantly changing so the internal timer of the computer would be used to seed the function. Since the timer returned time in fractions of seconds it was very fast and a person couldn’t predict what the results would be since there were thousands of results each second.

Now with a 5% chance of something happening, each time the rng is checked it would be checking is the number 1 to 50 on a roll that can be 1 to 1000. This is the method that should be used but judging from many of the returns it doesn’t seem like it.

For something to happen 5% of the time also means it won’t happen 95% of the time. If something is going to happen 5% of the time then the computer has to keep track of all previous rolls until all 1000 rolls have happened. So on the first roll maybe it was a 46. The next rolls the number 46 would no longer be a viable return so if 46 was rolled the rng would roll again until it found a viable result. Each time a viable result was found, that result would be added to the non viable results. Obviously, it would take longer each time as the list of viable results got shorter, but it still happens very fast. I also used similar routines to shuffle a deck of cards.

Another type is also a chance that something will happen but guaranteeing it will happen if it hasn’t happened yet. But this type is flawed and misleading because it would actually happen more often than stated. In this method it counts the number of rolls that have been made and when a positive result happens the roll count is reset. So say for 5%, 1 out of 20 rolls must be positive. If the positive result hasn’t happened after 19 of 20 rolls this method guarantees that roll 20 will be positive. It’s almost feels like something like this method is being used since 5% events seem to happen much more often than 5% of the time. Also the number of total rolls required has a major impact on this method. A 50% event may only require 2 rolls to determine 50% but with only 2 rolls if something doesn’t happen on the first roll then it is going to happen on the 2nd roll. So it could happen multiple times on the first roll before it misses and goes to the 2nd roll. But if the count is 1000 rolls then it’s improbable but there could be up to 500 failures before you got the guaranteed positive roll.

I don’t reverse engineer software so couldn’t tell anything about how this game is coded or works, but somebody mentioned once that the game uses a list of pregenerated numbers for the random events. It’s possible that when a Battle is started that a list of random numbers could be generated (or lists are already made and you receive one of the lists randomly) instead of calling for a random number each time a random number is needed.

4 Likes
#9

and if you had forgotten it, you’ be offering yourself up as a fine example of it.

#10

Are you counting strike events too?

#11

I have not did those yet but I won’t be using indo.

#12

It’s fairly easy to make rng indiscernible from truly random for the purposes of this game. I have yet to see a study which proves with a fair amount of certainty that there is something off.

I bet if dodge outcomes could be made to depend on a literal coin toss, people would still see what they see as long as they don’t know it’s an actual coin controlling their fate, not a computer.

#13

I (and I think many people alike) understand that waves are to be expected.
Like throwing 7 in catan has the highest chance of happening, not throwing 7 is 5 times as likely.

The thing is that in my 3000 battles played (200x15 per day guesstimate) I get rng that has a 1 in a x thousand chance of happening.
Its not weird that improbable stuff happens, but it is the degree to which it happens, the loss of feeling of control that follows, and the relative big impact on ladder position.

a small example: of the 48 utarinex instant stuns since I started counting, 13 have critted.
while 50 is not much, its enough to not expect anythjng above 10, and this is 27%

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#14

I dont know about that Ive played alot of games, on alot of platforms… Ive never seen rng work in a game quite like this one does. MMO, CCG, rpgs… all games that have a ton of rng by nature and yet ive never seen rng hard balance itself out quite like this game does. Like having rng go my way, or against me a few games in a row is one thing. But when its over the course of 10+ games of streaks followed by another streak that tells me something is off.

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#15

The game wouldn’t even know what is “your way”. For example, sometimes it’s better not to crit so your dino gets set up the next turn instead of the opponent’s.

Streaks are bound to happen in a truly random rng. Determining whether there is more “streakiness” than that needs a thorough study. That’s beside the fact that it would be actually harder to code.

#16

You may need more a more thorough study… me ive played 30+ matches daily for months. And ive played enough of other games to know rng works differently here then other games… and its not just it ability to swing matches because ive played alot of hearthstone in the past and thats the king of rng fests.

While its true to set up rng to do streaks may be harder to code to begin with if your original code was to be found faulty late in the developmental cycle. Rather then starting over or fixing that faulty code you put an rng enforcing code then ensures a streak of one extreme to the next . Therefore in the long run it will even out i dont debate it does even out. Its how it evens out that bothers me.

Rng in this game is predictable and has patterns… and there are ways to use the system to your advantage… if see rng is favoring me and my opponent has been unlucky ill use more rng abilities… if the opposite is true ill do everything i can not to use them. For the most part it works.

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#17

Give me your clues, it would help me to know when to switch, when to go for the kill, etc…

That doesn’t make any sense :thinking: literally every single ability in the game barring the no damage ones has a crit chance > 0 and is therefore a "rng ability "

“When it works it’s working 100% of the time” :ok_hand:

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#18

My I-Rex has been hit through cloak let’s see… 38 matches and counting now. It absolutely refuses to dodge in every match I pull it, while the I-Rexes I seem to encounter can pull a 0-3 sweep.

And yet he must be on my team being my highest leveled animal

I’ve noticed no waves of good and bad rng. Just one infuriating, broken mechanic to make players think they need to buy more incubators out of rage

#19

The human mind is best at recognizing patterns. But sometimes thinks it sees patterns where there are really none.

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#20

Yes it is quite noticeable, and I think really affects players morale and desire to play. It great when you’re ‘winning’ the RNG rolls, but terrible when you’re locked into a negative RNG bias for many games (which is why I simply reset the game/return later and it tends to clear the RNG losing waves).

Yes definitely, I have found that too (for what it’s worth).