Disclaimer: I got my hands on a dataset of 50 glorious chests contents, I did not open the chests to record the data myself, so I’m working with the assumption that the dataset is accurate. From the looks of it, these were purchased with a new account that hasn’t beaten SSK in Explore mode, so it only contains 873-1048 gold, 175 cards, 9 guaranteed rares and 4 guaranteed epics. My own chests say they give about 5 times as much stuff and I think that’s because I’ve completed the HSM adventure and the chest rewards are tied to explore mode progress. This is also excluding VIP bonus cards.
The biggest question is probably legendary drop rate. Out of 50 chests, 28 chests contained a legendary card, or a 56% drop rate. No chest gave more than a single legendary card. Given the variance, I’d say that it’s probably a 50% drop rate for legendaries.
There is a clear pattern to the loot: you get 8 “buckets”, with the first bucket being gold. The chests averaged 966.9 gold (standard deviation of 49 gold) with the highest at 1043 and the lowest at 866.
The second bucket is always common cards. There is at least one bucket with common cards, and at most three buckets. Each bucket contained copies of the same item. They were distributed pretty evenly, 13 single common bucket, 17 double common bucket and 20 triple common buckets. The total quantity of common cards were slightly affected by how many buckets of common cards the chest contained.
On average, each chest contained 125.3 common cards. If the chest had a single common bucket, it averaged 96.4 cards, whereas double common bucket averaged 129.2 and triple common bucket averaged 140.8 cards. Having a single common bucket usually lead to better results.
There was always at least a single rare bucket (which is mandatory since the chest was advertised to contain at least 9 rare cards). Half contained a single rare bucket. There’s a chest with 4 rare buckets, which seems pretty wild. 2 chests had 3 buckets and the rest had 3 rare buckets.
On average, each chest contained 40 rares, but the actual number is highly correlated to how many bucket you pulled. The lowest rare count was 16. A single bucket averaged out to 28.7 rares. Double rare buckets averaged 46.5 rares, triple buckets 79.5 rares and that quadruple bucket had a whopping 102 rares.
It seems like the rare count was never near the minimum advertised.
There was a fairly large variation in epic cards. There was at least 2 epic buckets in every chest and at most 4. There were 20 chests with 2 epic buckets, 24 with 3 epic buckets and 6 with 4 epic buckets.
Total epic count also correlated with the number of buckets. On average, each chest held 9.1 epics, with a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 21. Two epic bucket chests averaged 6.35 epics, three buxkets averaged 10.6 epics and four-buckets averaged 12 Epics.
The max copies noted was 7 of the same card, and minimum was a single copy.
I’m not entirely sure how to value legendaries so I’m going to set them aside. Otherwise, I’ll value commons at 5 gold, rares at 50 and epics at 500.
Excluding legendaries, the value of a chest averages out to be 8,134 gold. If the chest contained a legendary, the nonlegendary stuff averaged out to be worth 8965.4, whereas chests without were worth 7076.5.
If we consider that a gem is worth around 20 gem, that’s a really terrible exchange rate. If we value a legendary at 40,000 gold then the average chest would be worth 20k + 8134 gold, or 28,134 gold. Still shy of the 60k in equivalent resources we dump into it.
However, that’s just for the lowest tier Glorious Chest. My current chest is worthj approximately 5 times as cards, rares and epics. So if we extrapolate the data by assuming that it also scales 5 times, the expected value of a post-HSM chest would be worth just over 60,000 gold, which works out exactly right. I imagine that finishing HCD would put it over the gem value.
The Glorious Chest seems like terrible value for new players, but gets to be decent value past HSM.
It works out to be roughly 6,000 gems per legendary via the chest, so legendary farming is better done through the 2-for-1 2,500 gem pack deals and the occasional 40,000 gold offers from Durnan’s store.
Hope that’s helpful for all you people considering buying the Glorious Chest with gems or cash.