Ludia Forums

Dice not truly even results

Running through a dungeon repeated times trying to get an epic item my wizard doesn’t have. I want 1 18 on the d20 to get it. It’s Frostsilver and I get 3d20 every time easily. But despite having rolled about 60 dice I haven’t rolled a single 18. (Yes I’ve gotten 19s and 20s.) Statistically I’m getting lots of repeats of numbers, and some not at all. I believe you don’t have a real 5% shot for any number and instead have different probabilities based on the quality of the reward.

Have you ever played at a table and had the dice not go your way the whole campaign. Not fun but it happens.
I would like to see the statistics on the d20 also though, nothing like rolling real dice

Rolling 60 dice says you ran the dungeon 20 times. That’s not a large enough sample size to infer probability. As someone who has tracked results over a couple hundred runs in FSM and a considerable amount in other dungeons I found no evidence to any rigging of the dice.

Confirmation bias is pretty common, you really shouldn’t feel bad for having it. Keep going at it and you’ll get what you need.

2 Likes

I had a set of dice that was legendary for lowroling, especially at critical moments. I ended up embracing the Madness.

2 Likes

Gil!!! Finally someone who gets it. All you have to do to tell that you need a huge sample size for odds to work out is roll a d20 even forty times and see how many numbers still haven’t shown. Or how many you see more than twice which would fit the averages. Statistically you need 100’s or even 1000’s to see a true average come around

1 Like

To confirm bias with a chi-squared test, you would need at least N x 100 repetitions, where N is the number of faces on the die. But preferable would be N x 1000. Therefore, to confirm bias in a d20, you’d need a minimum of 2000 rolls to find bias and 20,000 rolls to demonstrate the bias with a high degree of certainty.

2 Likes

Drizzle that is exactly what I say, although I didn’t remember the exact numbers because statistics class was a long time ago, people will complain about going through a dungeon and getting all three dice 20 times without getting a specific roll and say that proves they are being cheated in some way.

1 Like

I’ve been wanting to respond to these fixed dice posts for a while but been biting my tongue. It’s been pretty well debunked by others anyway. But I did want to point out one place where the D20 at least appears to fixed and that is in initiative rolls for battle. You never see ties. Of course, it’s entirely possible that ties are resolved and you just see the final result.

It’s not that initiative means that much in battle, but if your opponent rolls a 20 you would think you would have a chance to also roll a 20 and force a re-roll.

3 Likes

Initiative can be important in my opinion. Having the bard pull some domination tricks like getting Halbanet or the opposing bard dominated so as to deny them the chance to use regeneration or domination until well into the match can definitely affect the outcome. Similarly, getting your no attack attacks in first can shut down multiple team members on the other side. Similarly, getting a no move attack in early on a melee character can sideline them for a big portion of the battle. Similarly, a knock back attack in the first round can be especially disruptive to a melee heavy team or a team without weapons the can shoot far enough.

2 Likes

Initiative has an impact upon the battle depending on the team mixes for sure. Overall I’d guess there is a slight advantage to winning initiative but its not critical to winning a battle. Besides, this post is about the fixed dice ‘controversy’, not the importance of initiative.

Very nice observation!

My guess about initiative is that since in reality it is really 50/50 who gets to go first is that once that is determined then they just put dice up there as a graphic for asthetic purposes. I have noticed that a lot of times when I lose I can see the number They beat me with on the left hand side of my number on my die like it is just one spot off… it doesn’t happen always and it might just be observational bias, but it seems like it happens more than it should

1 Like

I understand you and that 's why i usually dont go hunting for objects what drops drops…the point is that if we should hunt for an object we have really few possibilities to choose it .It would be good if with a 20 you can choose between all with a 19 you can choose all from 1 to 19 with a 18 you can choose all from 1 to 18 and so on this way so we have some real chanches to choose how to develope our heroes…I had to choose between two epic last time i needed both but with one i was sure the hero was promoted and not with the other ,then i saw that another hero got promotion even with the other who was better now i should hunt for a 20 on 2 dices in anvil of dumathoin but I know it will never come again so it’s a waste of time and resources…well for 20 result the thing I suggested is not even good because you only need 20 (the arch epic)

Would you like them to come over to your house too so that they can use your phone and do all of the work for you? Or maybe just give everyone max gear as soon as they sign up?

1 Like

Ok Ok, It’s Gone Now :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes::rofl::grin:

FYI, there’s only a 4.6% chance of rolling 60 d20s and not getting a single 18.

Low, but not that low.

Posthoc methodological design of randomness studies are problemic as well.

Did you know that when the sales of ice cream go up so does the rate of murders? :wink: