I’ll let you do the math:

“a probability law” -im tired.

Do you mean statistically independent variables in probability theory?

Where the “odds” of one result is not predicated by what happened before nor does it affect what will happen after?

Maybe everything we get or don’t get, hit or Dodge,etc. may not be what we expect, but I think it is across the board and at least that is fair.

Oh dodges and stuns I agree… we have stats for (for the sake of argument, let’s say they are true)

But my claim was simply:

“It is statistically improbable for 24 hour arena epic incubators to provide the same recurrent epics as frequently as they do if all were programmed to be delivered equally.”

In other words: you have higher chances of getting some dinos than others

Exactly. People scoff at things happening that have a small % of likelihood, but SOMEONE wins the lottery, and what do you think the odds we’re for carbon-based life were? Yet here we are. Murphy’s law basically states what can happen will.

I never said otherwise…
I’m just against baseless assumptions running around :wink:

I’m fine. I win either way : if you can’t prove it I win and if you can that would make the game better and we all win.
I’m waiting but trust me you have to prove it and your data need to be seriously documented.

I even want to help you if you need, and provide my samples. (I should have at least my last 10 epics incubator)

That is possible, no way for us to know although confirmation bias will have you see what you are looking for. But you could be right I can’t disprove it, we are both taking educated guesses :grin:

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To comply with Apple’s TOS, they should very well put the %'s in the incubators.


Haha, if “I can’t prove it, you win” :joy:

Not looking for you to win or lose bro…no offense but don’t know you or care about you that much

I’m Just calling out a trend that I’ve noticed.

And as with everything in life … “if you had fun, you won”

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But I find when looking for the truth to ask questions like “what would motivate them to do that, what would they gain?” To be honest I’m not seeing a benefit for them…

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C’mon now, we can all have a positive discourse without getting upset,right? We are only discussing ideas

This is probably the most important question…

My thoughts would simply be:

Users want something deemed valuable (be it epics, coins, cash) for their hard work,
By providing some form of this (epic incubators) they are entertained and feel there’s a return … but still,
They would have to work longer or pay more to get superior* options than what we’ve provided … thus supplying us with reliable cash flow

*legendary/unique ingredients


Once again, in my personal opinion, that seems thin… people will spend what they spend, if they continually don’t get a return then they will no longer spend-its a double-edged sword. The return is so small even if you get what you are looking for it only equates a couple fuses. I like what spectromegakai said though I wish they would post % chances, even Kabam does that for MCOC

Absolutely… these are all educated claims based on individual user experiences, just The recurring trend of which I found intriguing.

Until we have published stats, that’s all we have to go by…
Talk about a huge gamble from the developers side if it’s true tho.
In the grand scheme of things, it’s pretty inconsequential. there are plenty of ways to have fun. My Xbox still works and there’s always Tinder :joy:

Lol, In any case, good talk @Bourneslippy … it’s long past bed time here. Have a good night :crescent_moon:

That is just false.
We are discussing about 24h incubator. You can’t buy these incubator so the Apple tos on chest like loot boxes DOES NOT apply here.
You can’t buy 24h incubator.

Maybe you are talking about other incubator? Then first It doesn’t apply to all and second you are off topic then.

The 24h incubator IS the Epic Incubator from the store just with a different name!


Same way I’m calling out otherwise.

Since you challenge me that’s your call. If you just wait for others to do the job what’s the point? I offered you to start building a documented data collection but if you don’t want…

Lol… “documented data”
Bro, I’ve got other things going on in my life.

But if you want user testimonials, look at half the threads with complaints about these two dinos spamming incubators and I’m sure you’ll find what you’re looking for

@Stiffeno is right btw… 24 hour incubator/epic incubator… the same thing both provide epic DNA (only difference is that you get more dna from an arena epic incubator as u level up)

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You can’t know for sure. They could tweak the odds for the 24h to give only conca or koola and still allow an equal probability in the one in the store. Do you see the difference? Having the same quantity of DNA doesn’t make it the same object. Maybe. Maybe not.

Yes thats true it could be possible that it works like that, but remember we are talking about a Ludia game here, where to them “Less is more”…except when it comes to “micro” transactions haha!
Personally I think they just use the exact same code.

Remember they still haven’t even fixed the issue of the dinosaurs getting stuck in supply drops and thats a massively bad problem! If they didn’t even take the time to fix that, surely they wouldn’t take the time to code a different algorithm for a single incubator when they could just copy paste…I know, im an ex-programmer. Making re-usable code is almost mandatory at a certain stage!