That’s my problem, too.
That’s my problem, too.
Fusion results are on a curve though with 10 being most common (in most cases) and the chances decrease significantly once you get to the higher fusions with chance of getting 100 being very slight. There are at least three different curves and which curve you get depends on which dinosaur you are fusing.
Until somebody shows a valid set of data that proves it, there’s simply no reason to believe that Ludia is manipulating the RNG in any way at all. I have yet to see anybody meet that burden of proof. Period.
cof cof… kahamm…
the source code is not open, is it?
it makes much more sense ludia proof the opposite. we can only suppose.
they have the rules, we have a screen showing numbers. and our impression when get hit by CRITICAL DRACO SWAP IN RAMPAGE a total of 3 BATTLES IN A ROW.
sorry about caps, but draco is 5% crit. i’m done being so naive.
There are people that still think the earth is as flat as a pancake… There will surely be people that think the game is rigged…
yes. as there are people believe santa claus give us gifts every year, or tinkerbell is the name of tooth fairy… or believe the jwa rgn.
That’s your impression from a statistically insignificant number of events. I have seen nothing in this game that can’t be explained by a sound understanding of probability and randomness. You’re completely misunderstanding how randomness works and how to measure it in the game if you think your Critical SI-DSR 3 battles in a row experience proves manipulation.
i know how rand works.
the example is a little part of, not a single isolated proof of anything.
what i argue is the percent number shown as “chances of” doesnt seem as should be.
if you’re programmer, can make a simple code to simulate something.
for me its clear there are other logic and conditions to rand other than pure rand() < 5 (or whatever like) for a single action.
observer bias. Try and remember when you’re on the receiving end of good luck next time.
Someone flagged your post because it wasn’t posted alongside its English translation. If you add the English translation, they can’t flag it next time. Terribly exclusive experience for those who aren’t fluent in English, I fully agree.
To all those who flag these posts so quickly, could you please start responding to the poster to let them know why their post was quickly flagged and hidden to let them know what they need to do differently next time? Seems a tad bit more helpful that way.
Negativity bias is real. We tend to remember and focus on the times things didn’t go the way we’d hoped. There’s probably some evolutionary reason we’re all programmed this way. Awareness of it can go a long way towards overcoming it.
Human beings are very bad at distinguishing between what is and isn’t a random distribution. Our brains are wired to look for patterns and we tend to come up with stories or explanations for data that doesn’t fit what we expect random to look like. Random rarely looks like what we expect. Streaks and clustering are extremely common.
Feel free to follow the links in the Similar biases section. They also apply to this situation.
The only way to be certain is to collect sufficient data and run proper statistical tests. If Ludia is playing games then it would be obvious from those tests. Nobody has published convincing data that I have seen. It’s very doable. Silph Road researchers have carefully collected data to determine undocumented hatch, shiny, etc percentages in Pokemon Go. It would take something similar to convince me that Ludia is manipulating the game. Until then, cheers.
some didnt take my point.
its not about broken random, or different random rules than shown.
its not about point of view for bad or good luck.
its about random rules change according to some conditions.
i have to simplify an example: “time to loose” and “time to win”. wouldn’t be so simple, but to illustrate:
you are playing normally with expected random rules. 40% critical for tarbosaurus, 5% critical for dracoceratops, 3-turn 50% dodge for indoraptor, random selected dinos for battle, etc.
than your Iid is changed to “time to win”, because you need incubators, dna, complete your missions and renew your expectations with the game.
from now, your random things are upgraded. example: tarbo now is 80% critic, draco is 20%, indo dodge is 70%, etc… the 4 “random selected” dinos now consider their tier/level/etc against opponent, or you are simply matched against a “time to loose” opponent (manipulating both target ids).
still have chances of loose, but with good advantage. and you win consecutive battles. then the “time to win” indicator changes to normal. so now you have the so called random system.
another example: if you are about unlock new higher arena, and its good strategy that you are pulled back, so let’s change your id to “time to loose” and voila. monster opponents, your worst dinos selected, your dodge now fails 3 turns, you get hit consecutive critical, and so on… or you are the “time to loose” id matched to battle, in above example.
than you loose 10 battles in a row and first want to break your smartphone… then tomorrow you start to collect billions of dnas, coins (by the way, we need trillion of coins, may be the main item to make ludia earn user money, isn’t it?), or spend some money (it’s so easy to analyse people with chances of pay again for some offer or market item, based only on user history, or more conditions). then you start to play again and now you paid the money to get incubators, coins, etc, and now you are sure your team is strong enough to go beyond.
c’mon… think about it. why so much “random” things in a single game? almost EVERYTHING has a (non controlled by you) random, from battle to spawn.
what dino has 0% critical? how predictable is incubators or fuse?
if everything is random affected, i can only pretend that i have some control or strategy.
technically i think we can’t proof anything like bots in (early) pokemon go, but i don’t believe in santa claus, so sorry. just pay attention for many battles and use some code to random simulate… you’ll boost suspicions.
anyway… it’s a good dino game. battles are just for fun.
PS: i can be wrong, but it’s not up to me proof anything. i’m not the only, nor the first to suspect something wrong with game logic. it’s up to ludia shows it’s not.
I’m not missing your point. Every one of the specific things you mention as possibly being manipulated can be easily measured to determine if they are or aren’t random according to the advertised percentages: crit rates, stun rates, your 4 selected dinos, etc. Every one of them can be measured and we would be able to see if Ludia is modifying them.
Every one of the experiences you mention can be attributed to pure random phenomena without manipulation. Occam’s Razor also tells us that true randomness is the simplest and most likely explanation for the game behavior we see. It is more complex to develop, debug, and support a system with the type of manipulation you suggest.
P.S. when you are making claims of wrongdoing then yes it is up to you to provide proof because now you are misleading others in addition to deluding yourself
The most overlooked aspect of this entire insane discussion is that we know we are having real battles with the same known moves with real people thanks to discord and other apps. For all this “my Indo never dodges” we know who these Dinos don’t dodge against and we know whose Indo dodges 4 straight times…and they have the same complaints in the long run. Simply put it’s not a thing.
Lol, yeah. I had a crazy battle againt somebody with same level Indo and between the two of us we had 8 straight dodges so sometimes it even happens to both players at the same time.
thats neither time to lose or time to win. its time to potty and ludia gets up to use the bathroom and doesnt control anything.
only if i was alone about this.
yes, unlikely for a free only or ad-only game. when comes profit, we see a game with many new features every update and many bugs not fixed. but it’s another discuss for now…
really, simulate a 50% random and you’ll see its possible, even more. in a single battle. i didn’t refuse this.
this is usual, part of the emotional aspect of every game, and random boost this perception.
the essence of what i indicate is not isolated random actions or aspects, although i said about as part of explanation. but the set of all.
when you have isolated random elements, it’s usual to see “3 in a row” or “8 in a row” for 20% crit or 50% dodge. but statistics goes bizarre when you see an avalanche of this, when consider many random aspects in a single battle and consecutive battles. lottery gets jealousy.
yeah, let’s take some popcorn and play happy. it’s all fine.
that’s all folks!
I’m not trying to disprove your hypothesis, it would take more study than I feel the need to track. I am replying to the general “yeah mine never dodges either” tag alongs. I get what you’re saying and I suspect much is use bias but I’m not saying it’s crazy.
well… i can only say it’s possible, but recognize it’s hard to capture results and proof.
at first moment i can only note my battles and use simulator to see what seems bizarre.
ludia doesn’t have to proof anything. mainly because they know nobody will stop play because of this theory, as nobody stops because of that “pessimist point of view” somebody mentioned above. nobody, neither i.
and proof this would be only possible making code open source, what its not an option.
so… it’s just a discussion. thanks for your patience.
PS (off topic): would be a nice feature if we could chat with opponent during or after battle.