I have some lucky streaks and many unlucky streaks. One of the most frustrating though is when it feels like my crits only hit when my opponent is below 200 health. I know that’s not completely true though as I only notice when they don’t hit when I really need them to.
Unless a game keeps track to guarantee a percentage of an event happening the odds in each roll are always the same regardless of the previous rolls outcome. I.e. a 5% chance of something happening is not the same as something happening 5% of the time.
Shall we play a game;
Take all the cards necessary to make a royal flush out of a deck of cards. That’s 20 cards. Try and draw the Ace of Spades from those cards. It’s a 5% chance. If you didn’t draw the required card, discard it and draw another from the remaining cards (1 in 19 chance now). Each time your draw is unsuccessful the chance of your next draw being successful increases. Now say your 6th draw you get the Ace of Spades, great!!! But in this card game all 20 cards must be drawn before you can play with all 20 cards again so your next 14 draws are guaranteed to be unsuccessful. So it’s possible in that card game to get the Ace of Spades 2 times in a row (drawn last on one playthrough and first on the next playthrough) or nothing in 38 turns (drawn first in the first playthrough and last on the next playthrough). Since you are guaranteed to draw the Ace of Spades once in every playthrough of the 20 cards that is something will happen 5% of the time.
Using the same 20 cards, here’s a slightly different game. If you try and draw the Ace of Spades and you are unsuccessful but in this game you mix the card you drew back into the deck of 20 cards each time then every draw you have a 5% chance of drawing the Ace of Spades or 1 in 20 odds. Odds that never change. You could draw the Ace of Spades multiple times in a row or not see it for many many draws.
Now probability is one of those things that people mix up with odds. In the previous card game say you’ve drawn cards a hundred times but still have not drawn the Ace of Spades. Probability says you should have drawn it at least 5 times by now and many people will count on the next draw being the one because it hasn’t happened yet. But probability is misleading because the odds of the event happening are still 1 in 20 each draw and those odds do not change no matter how many times a person has drawn. Many people have lost their savings not understanding this.
Somebody using 50% dodge and dodging 8 times in a row is not impossible no matter how improbable it seems.