I agree with a lot of what you said except for the 95% abandonment… this games player base has stuck around 250-270k for well over a year now.
This games downloads per month is actually really low… sensor tower has it at 60k for December.
The biggest part of this games playerbase is casual… the bulk of these players don’t really hunt all that much or care to climb the ladder. They dart their weekly epics… do the rare epic and boost. And are completely happy with that. Some of them might battle a few times a month.
Because their only really get what is handed to them they don’t progress that much at all… which is the reason their are over 100k players between sorna, ruins, and avairy. And 17-20k between library, gyro, and shores.
Ludia has to find a way to get a larger percentage of players up the ladder and into the top three arenas… without just handing out more dna.
More players is better match making. Less players or more spread out players is worse for match making.