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Sphenacodon Tournament 10/16/2020-10/19/2020

I’ve had Code 19s of up to 90 DNA before. Might’ve had like a single one that was more than that but I don’t remember. My reaction time actually isn’t good at all, it’s like 300 ms or something. Luckily the game gives you a lot more than that long to react. There’s like a certain rhythm you can get into, especially for the number clicks.

ANYWAYS… back to the tournament lol. My Predator bracket trophy range is 618 to 1208 currently, I’m sitting at 734. Any rough predictions of how much more I need?

Btw, just had a 90 DNA code 19. Got 20 DNA and perfect containment :frowning:

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I believe the odds say less than 1%. So the exact odds are anybody guess (.1%, .01%, .001%, who knows). There are players that have been playing in tournaments for years and still haven’t gotten it. I think I scored one in the Titanoboa tournament. I’ve been playing competitively since around March/April.

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I wouldn’t worry, 3 chances a day to do it for a mere 5-10 SDNA or 25-350 DNA. Like you said, better prizes on the modded PvP wheel anyway. I only do it for the mission completion and then just do the rest because why not.

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If at a tournament topic and weekend maybe 50 diferent people coment and usually only one or two of them wins it. On average maybe they make 25 fights. (25 fights)(50 people)=1,250 fights/2 packs= one for each 625 fights. So it’s maybe between 1/1000 and 1/500 chance of winning it.

This is what annoys me is that regardless of the prize I’m like well everyone else is doing it why cant I do it right either, thats what sort of upsets me, plus they just appear like woohoo over here… come on you chicken… :joy:

Anyway good vibes back to the nice easy enjoyable tournament for me

On average I’d say each person has more than 25 wins. Most of the people here are Dominator, that’s at least about 1250, usually more. 1250 / 35 trophies on average is 36 fights, not to mention the guys who go all the way to like 2000.

Yes but there is also a lot of people that is between 700-1000 fights that enters the forum for tips during tournaments, but yes maybe it’s higher that would tell smaller chance. I would think it’s one between 500 fights, so if you play maybe you won one for each 10 tournaments, last one I won was mossasaurus :joy:

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Well I’ve only been in 5 tournaments so far, including this one, and I’m averaging like 650 trophies per tournament, soooooo

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Well fellow JWTG’ers… I haven’t posted many projection updates because my projections haven’t changed… This tournaments’ held up 100% to my day 1 prediction, and as of now (~9 hours remaining) this tournament has paralleled the speed of the Pteranodon Gen 2 tournament exactly, setting up for a 1467 point finish for the bottom of Dominator in my bracket…

My bracket’s held pretty steady with everyone else’s here, and I’m usually right smack in the middle.

I’m more curious to try and understand more about bracket deviation… Scientifically, it’s akin to a black hole to me. I know it exists based on the evidence here in the forums, but no idea as to how or why it occurs— both of which would help me factor bracket deviation into my projections more accurately. I have a number of theories that I’ve been working on (such as region-specific speeds, players racking up many more points than intended and thus potentially “pulling,” up their own brackets, players keeping the app open too long potentially creating “speed gaps,” or “time jumps,” whichever you wanna call it, etc)…

This last theory is a little bit more abstract than the other variables, but from what I gather over the years of tracking tournament speeds, bracket deviation appears to occur during the final 24 hours… It almost always results in the impacted players’ brackets to finish roughly 200-350 points higher than the bulk of players. And bracket deviation appears to occur during the final 24 hours of the tournament, when the speed can act a bit strange… We’ve seen speeds flat out stop at the end (though not so much anymore with the recent shortening of the timeframe for tournaments), and sometimes we still see speeds getting rolled slightly backwards during the final 24 hours (and then the speed proceeds to move forwards again). It’s difficult to pin down exactly how this could impact bracket deviation, but it’s possible that some players speeds deviate due to getting “left out,” of the intended speed shifts towards the end of the tournaments.

But alas, I digress… Good luck to everyone out here— as @Sionsith stated earlier, most people should be okay to call it to get this new creature by getting to at least 1640 points.

I’m always a bit more conservative when it comes to tournaments for new creatures, so I punch out an extra couple hundred points than the projection. I’m at slightly over 2000 points now, which should all but seal it for me.

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Much, much lower than 1%

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Packet odds are some where between .001% and .000000000000000000000001%. Just ask @Tommi

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Wow! I should try out for the lottery lol but since I got the pack from the wheel spin does that mean that I can unlock it even if I don’t finish dominator or do I just get one to hatch?

Yeah it’s definitely MUCH lower than 1% because most of us land on those 1% lottery prizes on a fairly regular basis, but it’s not unusual to get one of these tournament packs only once a year or even not THAT often. So I would say it’s around 0.01% or lower.

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Nope. You get just the one if you land on the pack from the Spin Wheel. Finishing in Dominator unlocks the creature.

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For what it’s worth, the Code 19s get progressively better as you get more paddocks with high level creatures, and more copies of the creature in the paddock. We know it’s possible to get upwards of 1000 DNA for a perfect score on a Code 19, although most of mine are about half that much. I don’t keep any paddocks out any more that don’t get at least 200+ DNA and very few aren’t in the 10 sDNA range either.

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Fingers crossed

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absolutely. I go hard each tournament to try and bag all the DNA and packs on offer. I’d easily be doing 100 matches each tournament and have never one the top prize pack.

Got my account into what should be safe territory. Now it’s time to see what I can do on my son’s account

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DON’T ASK ME!!

Never ever ask me about the odds of winning that package.:tired_face:

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Last and I believe that final run. I hope the score is enough. It’s 2:30 AM here and I need to wake up at 6 AM to go to work. Below are collected data and awards. Good night :yawning_face:

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