Stats math doesn't add up


#1

How is it possible that the monomimus can dodge 7/7 attacks when the stats show 50% chance to dodge? Broken game is making me frustrated.


#2

Each chance to dodge is calculated independently of any other chance regardless of what happened on any previous attempt. While its a pretty small chance, numbers wise, to get that many in a row, it does happen since each one is a coin flip.


#3

I get that but odds are totally against it…flip a coin in groups of 7 and see what happens


#4

I’m not saying you’re wrong in that the odds are against it. But, the point it the possibility exists for it to possibly happen, and so can (and does) happen. There’s also a difference between a RNG picking a number 1-100 7 times and having a ‘yes’ outcome, and actually flipping a coin 7 times…unless you can replicate the exact conditions of the first flip every time you flip the coin.


#5

The game should build in the reality of statistics. It’s anomalous that a 50/50 chance would yield a 7/7 result.


#6

It’s a 50/50 chance every time.

It doesn’t mean it will average out 50/50.


#7

It sounds as if you’re looking at it from the expectation of x/x attempts have been successful in the past, so each subsequent chance should have a lower chance of success. But its not diminishing returns on each chance of success. Each chance to dodge in this case has the same 50% chance to succeed or fail on its own, completely independent of any other chance, regardless of the overall chances of x number of successes in a row.


#8

Bring your nullifying dino and it will guaranted 0% to dogde.


#9

That is the answer to the problem right there


#10

I had three on my team, one in my line-up :weary:


#11

Every time there’s a coin toss to decide something, i choose heads and i seem to win every time over the years. Are you saying these coins are rigged too? And how are the odds against it? It’s even odds each time. 50/50


#12

The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future.


#13

Here’s a neat little app…flip the coin in the same conditions each time…

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ihandysoft.coinflip


#14

Actually odds are not totally against it. The odds are just as strong it won’t dodge 7/7. Now if you want to talk about over the course of 1000 or 10000 attempts then typically yes it will be 50/50. But in a short run things happen. Kind of like slots or roulette. Over the long run you will lose. But in a short period of time you can get on a roll and win big.


#15

I do realize that but even a run like that in a short period of time/number of attempts is exceedingly rare. That was my second time up against a monomimus so I just think, and I don’t think I’m being completely unreasonable here, the numbers are deceptive and inaccurate.


#16

How is it possible to my Monomimo to take EVERY SINGLE HIT, EVERY TIME?! :sob:
When you will face in battle a Monomimo that can’t dodge… This is mine :sweat_smile:


#17

:joy::joy::joy: that’s how I feel about my indom lol


#18

I wasn’t saying that it’s a fact that it’ll happen every time like that. I was just pointing out that it can happen. It’s a fact that heads has won coin tosses for me since I was a kid though, and I’m 35 now. Sure, I could sit here and flip a coin 50 times in a row and get tails sometimes. Maybe even more than heads. It’s just luck and it’s a 50/50 shot. If you want to see odds stacked against you, check out a casino. There’s no 50/50s there.


#19

The odds of Monomimus dogging 7 out of 7 times is exactly 50%. It either happens or it doesn’t.