Ludia Forums

Strange reward for mod Pvp

According to the pack information there should be a 45% chance to receive SDNA in a mod PvP fight.
I had 6 fights yesterday and 9 today and did not receive a single SDNA reward. This is not impossible but probability tells me there should be 6 to 8, but not zero.
If I had spend more attention towards statistics at the university I could calculate the exact probability.
That gives me a bad feeling about validity of those informations.

I did three fights last night and got SDNA one time, one rare creature, and VIP points on the third.

Might just be a bad run for you? If the SDNA was the main goal.

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Maybe it is one of those bad days, I hope it’s not one of those bad lifes.

I’ve been frustrated with this too because I am playing them specifically for the sarco s-DNA which there is virtually NO other way to get in the game than the detestable Code 19 game which I refuse to put any more wasted attempts to play into. The diplosuchus is one of the easiest super hybrids to make so it’s VERY frustrating that it’s so impossible right now to collect additional s-DNA for them (I guess I got most of the initial 2K before they switched them). But I have gotten MORE of the rarest stuff on the wheel, including the Rajastega, compared to the sarco which is SUPPOSEDLY far more probable to come up. I’ve actually been tracking what prizes I’ve gotten every time I’ve played and that sarco right now is at about 2% in my results. I know the way probabilities work that this doesn’t mean it’s not accurate. But I also know programming for accurate ratios also not always done correctly and prone to unintended shifts so it wouldn’t surprise me if the numbers we are given are not the reality.

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BTW - do you remember when we had a similar discussion when they had that prize wheel with nothing but commons and common packs? The packs were supposed to be something like 20% chance and I was playing a TON of PvPs so that I could get enough packs (with their associated loyalty points) to get the 10K VIP packs (using my lvl 10 commons so that they had no cooldown time). I would not be as far along in the game now if not for that wheel and I still haven’t finished hatching out all the commons that I won at the time. But there was this LONG stretch of time where I could NOT get a pack to save my life. And then I noticed at one point that the pack didn’t even show up on the prize wheel, so I was absolutely convinced that not only was that 20% probability wrong, but that the pack had been completely removed and I posted in outrage about it… only to find that no one else was having an issue and I had just hit a really bad cold streak. I did eventually finally start seeing them come up again, but that was a good reminder that a 20% chance of getting something on each chance does NOT mean that if you play 5 times, you will win 1.

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The odds aren’t working properly to what’s disclosed by Ludia. It already starts that the combined odds for events, wheels, packs are often not adding up to 100%.

While cold streaks can happen overall the odds should even out statistically and that’s just not happening.

Lottery: The second prize has a probability of 5% so if you buy 10 tickets you should’ve 1:2 chance to get the second prize, so you should receive on average every 2nd day that second prize. Well maybe I’ve only bad luck, but I rarely receive that prize and I play every day.

I play a lot of Aquatic PvP’s and receive quite frequently the Aquatic pack (odds are just 3% here the odds seem to favor me), but the Aquatic pack itself should provide you with a 25% of any Legendary and a 71% of any Super Rare (don’t ask what happens with the remaining 4%). I’ve pulled I think 10-15 packs over the last 1-2 weeks of these Aquatic packs and yesterday was the first time I received a Legendary Aquatic, isn’t that odd?

I generally don’t trust these odds and it would be good if Ludia could explain them better.

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The problem is that individual experiences don’t really produce high enough numbers to, as you say, even the odds out, at least not enough to know for sure. I would guess that if you collected them across ALL the players on most game elements, they would be reasonably close (my guess is the issue with the 100% is nothing more than a rounding issue). I know that I definitely seem to have hot and cold periods with the lottery (been on a hot streak recently, especially with the 1% prizes) while with the VIP packs, there always seems to be ones that I get WAY more often than the odds would indicate.

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In my tracking of the prize drop the odds are almost bang on across multiple weeks of tracking it was within 1-3 % points some weeks were good others were worse. What @Mary_Jo says rings true the % are rounded (or at least they have to be in order to add up to 100%) and those percentages are across everyone playing the game so you could go your entire time playing the game and never hit one of the rarer prizes where someone else could hit 3-4 of them in the same time period or even in a row. It’s all chance the only thing that increases your chances is giving your self more opportunities, or participating more in what ever it is you are trying to win. And since the wheels are all predetermined before it even spins is why some times you won’t even see the pack on the wheel, it’s just one of the video clips that they made that happens to not have a pack in it. But when you see the wheel before it spins there is already a predetermined prize that is going to show up and the wheel is spin is just for looks.

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You’ve got to be mindful of the three forms of data: lies, damn lies, and statistics

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I once had a friend who was playing roulette with a ‘perfect’ strategy.
Always put on black, if you lose double the stake. If you win at some point you get your initial stake as reward.
He was broken and never entered a casino again after he suffered a run with 12 times red.

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Everything has an end, even bad luck. Five minutes ago something incredible happened:

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Dang, I want some of those! Still on a cold streak when it comes to getting it though. I even got desperate enough to try a Code 19 and did the best I’ve ever done on one of them… only to find out I still didn’t get the s-DNA, only the other two lesser prizes (I guess you have to be darn near perfect to get it).

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LOL I received food today from the Aquatic Mod PvP wheel. Did that already happen to someone else? I won with some low end Aquatics so I also realized all the S-DNA was lowered on the wheel to 30 if you hit one, but didn’t expect to get some food.

Well also received a Leptostega today so not complaining, but still odd …

I can’t recall that I ever got food and according to the event reward information it shouldn’t be the case at all.

If you are low enough on the strength of your team I believe it starts to show up, aka the lower prize wheels.

Yup just double checked, it defiantly shows up if you play on something comparable like “Advanced Prize Wheel” on regular PvP’s. (Screenshot a bit late, but can see it on the right). Ludia should properly have it shown though in the price list.