Ludia Forums

The proofs in the spreadsheet

I used to think that maybe the reason the “deals” don’t add up to 420% or whatever they claim. That it was just old art work from when prices may have been different before I started playing. But the more I’ve got to know Ludia, I’ll just have to assume it’s an intentional scam.

If this was true


Or this was true

Then this pattern wouldn’t show up. If the block is blank, gear is past maxed. If there is only one number I’m working on last level. If it’s xxxx/xxxx then that’s how many out of how many needed for next level.


Don’t you just love when it’s assumed your to stupid to notice. If they are lying on required google discloser percents. When do they ever tell the truth? Just a thought…

I must admit it’s been nice since I stopped caring about game or forums. Been skipping all the test of trash events. Didn’t even bother to do the free ones. Only bothered to share this because someone might find it useful for something. I’m going to go crawl back under my rock now.

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To summarize, what @Tyr noticed is that weapons have a much lower drop rate for commons and rares, i.e. rarities where there are two weapons.

This is directly contradictory to what the drop percentage rates suggest, i.e. each item from a particular rarity has the same drop rate as other items from the same rarity.

Ergo, Ludia’s disclosure rate is misleading and offside disclosure requirements of the Google Play store (and probably iTunes as well).

Nice take 20 Int(Investigation) check Tyr.

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If this is true Ludia must fix it immediately - by law.

I don’t think Google Play or iTunes has the force of law behind their policies, but they do have remedies available to them.

Consumer protection laws provide avenues for complaint and some self-help remedies (through Google Play, iTunes and credit card dispute processes).

I’m not sure the law forces Ludia to do anything; just suffer the consequences of not following the rules by preventing them from accessing advertising or distribution.

I will admit i am confused by this spreadsheet. Are you trying to show that the drop percentages aren’t as equal within a group because for example, Shevarith is at 1021/2000 on common weapon 1 while halbenet is at 2424 of the last level for that same slot and that would be too big of a gap if they had equal chances?

the colours threw me off initially. Most of the other items are on last level but the weapons are all a long way off.

However, I assume that this data includes challenge rewards in which you choose the gear - hence there will be a selection bias when choosing from the rewards (towards a type of gear Eg helm over weapon and quality of gear - avoid certain useless items)

(Also it Doesn’t take into account that you don’t get all the characters at once or have they been put in acquisition order? You don’t start getting gear for characters from drops until you have them. Hence can only make comparisons within a character.)

Unfortunately, unless this data is drop only (which from the description it doesnt appear to be) - where drop is just chests and quest rewards but not challenge rewards)this spreadsheet tells us nothing

I think we can make a few safe assumptions:

  • the data presented is an accurate representation of the player’s account
  • the player has no incentive to manipulate their account to skew the data
  • the player has no incentive to consistently avoid common or rare weapon selections for challenges

Moreover, we have our own individual accounts to independently verify the differential drop rates.

The conclusion is consistent: common and rare weapons do not drop as frequently as other equipment slots.

Go check your own collection and tell me that it isn’t the case.

Throwing out valuable data without contextualizing it. smh

If I’m Eg collecting the epic weapon but the rare helm then I will of course have little of the rare weapon and a lot of the rare helm.

They only show common and rare data so it’s doesnt tell us much.

Plus I attribute more to the selection bias than you - that is I don’t think your third assumption is valid

Further what are the drop rates for? - chests and quest cards only?

There may be no selection bias, the drop rates they give on cards BUT the appearance of various objects in challenges may be completely unbalanced. I think that’s probably the most likely case

Plus certain items may turn up more on the shop to sell

and this would not be outside their representations

SMH

The reason I was asking is because if you get a pack that has two options that are 50/50 and is a larger pack, meaning say you get 500 cards. You may pull the first option and gain 500 cards for it. You could then get another pack that has the same 50/50 but is smaller, meaning maybe 100 cards, and pull the second option. Your character would show 2 different pieces of gear with the same drop rate but one would have 5 times the total.

It is similar to dice rolls when winning a dungeon. I know there is controversy to whether or not a true randomness is given, but for the sake of argument let’s say there is. Something that is set in the 20 spot could give you 50 pieces of gear. Something sitting in the 1 spot might only give you 2 pieces of gear. So coming back later and just looking at total pieces of gear doesn’t really tell you anything about how random it may be.

Also I don’t think tarry was saying he was intentionally skewing the data. I think he was saying that throughout that players game time he may have choose a specific piece of gear more often because he wanted that piece.

The findings from @Tyr only applies to commons and rares because at those rarities there are two weapons and only one weapon at epic and legendary rarities.

@Tyr is saying that each equipment slot has the same drop rate, but when two items occupy the same slot, their drop rates are halved.

This has been consistent with my own personal collection.

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First point:

I mention the other data Eg epics as that might show you what they r focusing on collecting.
a very low count on a rare weapon may be because they r collecting an epic weapon. The same may not be true for Eg a helm, they may be collecting a rare helm hence you would see a high count of rare helm and a low count of rare weapon.

Second point:

Drop rates Would not be inconsistent if “gear” means Eg weapon, helm etc rather than weapon A, weapon B, helm etc

Even if this is not the case the selection bias means this data is highly confounded,

Personally I don’t think the data is that useful

Ps data is not consistent for my collection, at least the two I bothered to look at: archer and cleric

Note I am someone who collects gear that I like more than gear that has best stats, best for PVP etc - selection bias may have a much bigger effect than you realise

In my opinion, this is a somewhat non-intuitive interpretation of the word “gear”. But I guess it might give them a weasel method of squirming out of it.

My personal data is a bit less clean than Tyr’s since I haven’t level much if my gear, and would require a normalization based on total collected copies which I am too lazy to do.

I invite some of our top PvP regulars like @gpinsky1313 and @Dungeoneer to share their experiences with common and rare weapon drop rates. If I recall correctly, @Dungeoneer was gunning for the common paladin weapon. I’d be curious to know if his other common items have higher counts in spite of his preference for the weapons.

Just looked the common gear and on every character I own weapon are behind compare to other common item on every single hero I own. Might be Tyr conclusion might be in challenge they put less often common weapon but when I don’t need any reward unusually pick the rarest if there nothing I need and no gems. So my guess is Tyr is right

@retsamerol

You could do that but it wouldn’t help your argument
(The dungeoneer point is relevant IF they decided to collected common weapon from day 1)

My point is that it’s confounded by selection in challenges

Take Eg Archer (probably the most extreme example but anyways …)

Literally nobody in the Level 7+ arena uses anything other than the epic or legendary bow (with the exception of me :stuck_out_tongue:)

In contrast plenty of people will use various common and rare of the other items.

The abilities of the epic bow and it’s great salience will mean that your very unlikely to pick common or rare bow even if it’s the better option from a bunch of garbage.

@Krom

From what I can see Tyr refers to the drop rates taken from chests and compares them to his acquisitions. The implication seems to be that the drop rates are not as advertised.

It was me that suggested that perhaps the challenges are unbalanced. Hence the drop rates may be correct in chests, quest cards etc but differences in challenges may cause acquisition differences

Well I faced someone with the rare axe today and someone using the bow with the bleed effect. Maybe one of them was you

I’m in breakbone at the mo. I have seen one guy once using the rare axe.

There are too many variables in how you get pieces of gear to use a simple count to determine drop rate percentages. You get cards in card packs. Those card packs are different sizes, so that if you get gear piece A in one and gear piece B in another, they may have the same frequency of being chosen but you get way more of one than another. In theory your dice rolls in adventure and challenge mode are equal but depending on what roll you get, you can get a large difference in number of pieces. Challenges are different strength so that a 20 in one challenge doesn’t get you the same as a 20 in another dungeon. You have the option of both buying and selling pieces you like or don’t like. You can donate pieces or have pieces donated to you.

Yes Mkb that’s my point the data is way too confounded - you also get huge chunks of some things sometimes - I had the option of getting 1800 of a common item in a triple gear challenge once, I didn’t take it and have been kicking myself ever since

I mentioned selling earlier, I don’t buy much so didn’t mention that but others probably do

Forgot about donations as I don’t bother with them

Yep that’s one I didn’t think of. Sometimes you get 2 or 3 times depending on challenges.