Not that I’m saying your Philosophy is wrong but consider this thought as well:
before Alliance missions got settled and got organised I always had a steady progression with a losing and a winning streak (losing streak usually before a 12/24 hour inc came up) winning streak right after. But always ending up higher than I started over the course of a month.
Ever since the alliances got organised and aiming for the highest rewards I have a totally different experience. Cycle is repetitive every week now and looks like this:
start of the week I progress slightly encountering more or less the same team levels with the exception of a few that kick my behind 3-0 but mostly battles seem ok. End of the week alliances need the amount of battles and incs done which is impossible to do quickly in the highest Arenas due to competitiveness and lack of players so they drop.
Thursday/Friday you’ll see a lot of lvl 10 or even level 1 teams passing trough so you progress a bit more.
Then starting Saturday it’s Lockwood estate and Aviary where you’ll find them most. You’ll encounter everything from lvl 30 boosted Thor to lvl 30 boosted Rares. All in there to get the battle done ASAP and the incs done. By dropping they get the battles in quickly and by climbing back up using the lvl 30 they finish off and getting the incs done as well.
As the progression you made (battle points) while beating the lvl 1-10 teams is only 15-20 points per match you’ll now drop quickly as every battle you loose against the lvl 27-30 teams will cost you 25-40 points. Ending up right back where you started or even further behind. TMO this has nothing to do with a Ludia scam, it’s all about the Alliances getting the missions done. Add the players who dropped purposely to escape the 120 sec timer all the way up and you’ll be stuck right in the limbo spot somewhere just below or above Avairy.