Waves of good n bad rng

Is it possible a player’s battle history records i.e crit for/against you & dodge for/against you is used in the backend rng calculation? For e.g. you just reached a threshold of successful crits in a few battles, so the next few rounds onwards, the rng mechanics will temper your crit chances, no matter the dino’s crit % and vice versa, while somehow trying to make it look random. Same goes for evasive/dodge rng mechanic. Just a thought.

As a developer, I cannot think of a single reason to put such a complicated mechanic into a game. I would just calculate the random every time it’s needed right on the spot.

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The random percentage is not based over time but on each individual roll of the dice as it were.

Yea I would think that should be the case as well, it sounds more like a conspiracy theory if indeed your crit/dodge history is somehow tracked and comes into play for rng. Tho having said that my erli sometimes can’t dodge for a few running battles, kinda feels like the dodge was turned off haha, and after a while it starts dodging everything again. Could be just pure probability I guess.

Well it would also be in their best interest to have players winning some days and losing on others, so on those losing days they rush out and buy coins or boosts for their dinosaurs.

As an ex programmer myself, when I see something dodge 12 times in a row or getting a fuse of 10 ten times in a row, that doesn’t sound very random to me!

If it was truely random, thats like flipping a coin 10 times and having it land on the same side 10 times straight! Is it possible? of course, but it happens WAYYY too often to be just bad luck!
Its either code specifically giving you bad fuses, or the code bugging and repeating itself (which can happen, had it happen in a battle game I was working on, where the random damage calculation was repeating under certain circumstances!)

Then again it could just be conspiracy, I mean why on earth would Ludia deliberately want players to get low fuses and thus have to play longer? :wink:

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Actually its even less likely than the flipping a coin and landing on the same side 10 times in a row, because there was TEN possible fuses! 10 through 100. So thats like rolling a dice with 10 sides and having it land on the exact same side 10 times in a row.
Maybe randomly once in a blue moon but I myself have seen it happen on a number of occasions!

10 has about a 40% chance of landing, if not more, so it’s not like you have a 10% chance to get a 50 or a 100 either. It’s “about” 50/50 to get a 10, and 50/50 for something higher than 10.
But yeah, it does feel like random is against you quite often. I am not sure if this is a psychological thing or pure math, but odds do seem unlikely.
What seems slightly more likely to me is that high fuse chance for certain dinos is lower. Like magna is 70% for a 10, and tryko is a 30% for a 10. Still doubt it.
If our gut feeling really is correct then there are some evil programmers there who actively influence RNG, but I can’t think of any reason to spend precious developer time to do something this complicated, when they can’t even fix a simple chat scroll bug that has been there for over half a year.

With fuses I have noticed that if the Dinosaur still hasn’t been unlocked I get loads of 10s and 20s, if it’s already unlocked I get more 30s, 40s etc…

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Like when I was trying to unlock Indo and got sooo many 10s, then my 2nd fuse when unlocked was 100 -_-!

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Found this page on MetaHub -

Edit: By the way yesterday I fused a 100 on Angretta…according to MetaHub thats a 0.08% chance! lol

Well in the bigger scheme of things, I think the rng issue has taken a backseat for now, whatever it may be, we can only play in good faith that there is nothing nefarious happening behind the scene when it comes to rng lol

The RNG in this game has always seem to be either always on or always off! Like something will dodge everything, or nothing! Never in between!

Had a few Indo vs Indo matches where we both dodged everything like 6 times each!

My Touramoloch is taking ages to be unlocked every time I fuse I always get a 10 still 188/250 to go :frowning:

I also got a 100 fusing yesterday! Unfortunately, it was just for Koolabourgiana :sweat:

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Generally, yes. I kinda see two parts of this, though: first, agreed; you’d never want to put any sort of audit mechanism like that into the client. You’re just inviting users to browbeat you with perceived injustices when the results are 0.00000000025 standard deviations from the mean.

Second, agreed; having a variable RNG mechanism is unnecessarily complicated and introduces its own potential experience issues… except, consider, the Gambler’s Fallacy. An argument can be made that having a thumb on the RNG scales can ignite Gambler’s Fallacy in some users, turning the perception that things will even-out if they just play more… into more time-in-app, more interactions, thus, opportunities to nudge spending, and hopefully, more ARPU. Clearly, doing this poorly can be a disaster, and if you don’t know your user distribution (and/or you’re not sophisticated enough to test results), then it’s foolish, but the justification for such a thing as variable RNG isn’t purely abstract.

I suppose an adjunct (or another primary) reason could be that you want to reward a certain set of users, like those who have spent in the past, but that’s a tough discussion since it brings up a lot of contentious things.

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Ah never mind, it coulda been worse, you coulda fused a 100 on a Koolabourgiana >.<!

All jokes aside though it would be nice to get some 100s on something while its needing to be unlocked. Like my Tryko is half unlocked and getting all 10s, and I never see Anky.
Got like nearly 2000 Kentro waiting to be used…

My best fusing in recent memory was for dilorac, was 120 with 1 fuse remaining, and needs to hit a 30 fuse to unlock next level. Was thinking nah what’s the chance, I’m fusing a unique, hit the fuse button n the magic 30 appeared, couldn’t believe my eyes for a sec lol.

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Perhaps all the programming resources were channeled into making second part work, which could explain the neglect in other parts of the game oh no my conspiracy theory brain is acting up again lol

Referencing what I mentioned above, regarding Gambler’s Fallacy (and how that could dictate a variable RNG mechanism), chat is a fairly minor feature, whereas the argument could be made that actual RNG experience has a direct effect on KPIs.

What’s funny about this whole discussion about RNG is that there may be no manipulation, and the RNG library/engine is state-of-the-art, the RNG seed could be the issue.

Haha, yeah, discussion of manipulations like this - kinda/sorta conspiracy theorizing - can be a slippery slope, for sure. If variable RNG is a thing, it’s probable that the engine for that was developed long ago, since it’s exactly the sort of thing a publisher with experience in casino games would have a strong interest in exploring/deploying (although the liability stakes in that category are significantly higher, since there are criminal consequences).