Ludia Forums

Weighted dice?

Does anyone else get the feeling the reward dice might be weighted? With three dice per challenge run, you’d expect at least one 20 every six or seven runs. But I’ve been paying attention to that number at least (since it’s usually the only reward I want) and it’s coming up far less often than that…

1 Like

Confirmation bias is highly suspected. Take full notes of the next 100 challenge rolls. You should see around 15 20 rolls.

My dice have been fair for what it’s worth.

Oh it very well could just be me. That’s why I asked :stuck_out_tongue:

For what it’s worth, before the 3d20 rolls I was barely getting any 20s at all. Just like its odds it really feels like 1 in 20 chance but ever since this patch I’m seeing a huge increase in the 20s. Yes i know, math involved, blah blah blah, but overall to me it’s been very generous.

I want an official response from the developers on this question.

I am happy to provide my support key if required.

I have spent the day attempting to farm a particular item. Not only have I not got the number once, with one exception I have not gotten any items of that caliber.

I am not talking about 10 or 20 battles here. I have wasted a ton of time.

I want to know if the dice is gamed in any way. I want an official answer from the developers. Yeah I know my luck can be crap. But I know math. I was actually doing better with the D6/D12/D20 system.

If my Support Key enables the developers to view battle and reward logs, let me know. I will give it to you.

Cheers

Random is…random.
I have been getting quite a few “20” rolls the last week(s)

The RNGeus is not kind to me. I’ve only rolled one D20 since it was implemented.

FWIW, the dice seem to react when you tap the screen or nudge them while they’re rolling. If you’re seeing them slow down like they’re going to hit a number you don’t like, tap or swipe the screen and they’ll bounce around some more. Sometimes this gets you something better. Sometimes that nice high number tips over to a pitifully low one. But I definitely feel like I’ve nudged a die to a 20 when it was going to be an 8 or something.

Interesting. Definitely going to try this out. Thanks.

OK, here i my record of Challenge Battles over the past 2 days where my rogue has been in the battle.

3186 XP awarded from 38 battles
113 D20 Dice (lost 1 battle at the final boss)
1 result with a 20 to get the item I have been attempting to farm. That’s it. Now what are those odds?

Prior to me farming this item, I have had trouble farming other items, but never this bad. Since the 3 X D20, I have never come close to getting approx 1/7 desired die rolls (usually it is a 20 that is desired).

This is why I want a developer to come out and answer the question. Are the dice loaded? Do the dice give genuinely random results? Am I wasting my time?

I get 20’s all the time. My average is 1 in 5 dice rolls is a 20 since the change to 3 20’s. You just have bad luck

Does this really do anything? It’s predetermined. Try rolling the dice, see the results, then force close the app before you choose any rewards. Load it back up, do your (i’m calling it now) pointless nudging and see your results. It’ll be the same exact roll.

I think we determined previously when there was a event where you couldn’t claim rewards that the dice rolls were fixed at some point. I expect this is to prevent restarting the app if you don’t like what you get. Probably happens when you kill the last boss.

There has also never been any confirmation that just because it’s a d20 that it’s a true die roll. It’s implied to be 5% for each reward but it may not be coded that way.

1 Like

This is what concerns me.

My bad run, that I have highlighted earlier is still ongoing. It’s insane!

I’m still sure there is some behind the scene thingy that affects rolls from challenge to challenge (but that is only my opinion). Some events I can’t get any good rolls, aka the ones that give epics and bigger currency rewards. If you notice that is happening best suggestion I can make is wait for reward/event change and give it a try again, it usually goes back to normal rolls from then on. However, with all dices now being d20 things have improved a bit since old d6, d12 and d20 times.

Here’s a link to topic with some data you might like:

Zero math behind this post but did 5 challenges today and got two “20” in 2 different ones, netting me the two epics i was after

yep dices are clearly weighted and the first one more than the last you get it is very imprbable to get something goof with a single dice even if you should have 1 on 20 so every 20 launch you should get a 20 and even a 19 an 18 and so on but you don’t get them often even with 3 dices…so yeah heavy weighted…it’s all in the pay to win mechanic they canot give you fair chances they want you to spend money…

1 Like

The reward dice and combat dice are absolutely, 100%, non-random. Without fail, I will consistently get the same numbers rolling multiple times in rewards during certain periods. This is simply not probable in a purely random system. And what’s more is that they’re always rolls that work against my gear goals. And let me be clear here, I’m not talking about anecdotally or by a small sample size, I’m talking that I’ve recorded play session reward results and found very distinct probability curves weighted against attainment of necessary gear. For instance, let’s say I have no need for the 20 result in Harvestshield Mountain but I really, really need that 1 x epic reward on a 10. I’ll run a hundred odd games during the challenge reward period. In that period there seems to be at least three distinct results ‘patterns’. In one of those, I’ll roll a lot of 20’s. In another, I’ll roll lots of 17’s, 11’s, and 4’s (this is just an example, not exact data). But never a single 10. In another pattern, it’ll be 14’s every so often (for that epic reward), and lots of 19’s, but otherwise no 10’s or other big numbers.

These patterns are incredibly improbable to the point where I have no doubt whatsoever that there is an algorithm or, more likely, an A.I. steering these results.

You can also see lots of patterns in the combats. Misses tend to come in lots of 2’s and 3’s. Crits are almost always 2 in a row. Misses will almost always come at crucial junctures where a hit is vital for success. And there also seems to be a “Marked for Death” on certain characters (usually the bard or the rogue, I find) in some dungeons where you’ll get persistent focus-fire on that character even if you exit the app and restart it to reset the dungeon a dozen times.

1 Like

Taunt always works for the mobs, and rarely for the players. I’ve rarely seen it work in PVP at all.

Yes, it’s obviously weighted against you to try and force you into spending more $$$$ on the game.